Daniel Nagin
Teresa and H. John Heinz III University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics
Daniel S. Nagin is the Teresa and H. John Heinz III University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics and since 2006 has served as the college’s Associate Dean of Faculty. He received his Ph.D. in 1976 from what is now the Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy.
He is the co-editor of Criminology and Public Policy, chaired the National Research Council’s Committee on Deterrence and the Death Penalty, and served as Deputy Secretary for Fiscal Policy and Analysis in the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue from 1981 to 1986.
He is an elected Fellow of the American Society of Criminology, American Association for the Advancement of Science, and American Academy of Political and Social Science and the recipient of the American Society of Criminology’s Edwin H Sutherland Award in 2006, the Stockholm Prize in Criminology in 2014, Carnegie Mellon University’s Alumni Distinguished Achievement Award in 2015, and the National Academy of Science Award for Scientific Reviewing in 2017.
His research focuses on the evolution of criminal and antisocial behaviors over the life course, the deterrent effect of criminal and non-criminal penalties on illegal behaviors, and the development of statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data. His work has appeared in such diverse outlets as the American Economic Review, American Sociological Review, Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Journal of Sociology, Archives of General Psychiatry, Criminology, Child Development, Demography, Psychological Methodology, Law & Society Review, Crime and Justice Annual Review, Operations Research, and Stanford Law Review. He is also the author of Group-based Modeling of Development (Harvard University Press, 2005).
Courses Taught
- 95-796 - Statistics for IT Managers
In The Media
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- Max Planck Law - What Role Can Private Citizens Play in Preventing or Disrupting Crime? (08-27-2024)
- Max Planck Law - Insights into the Research of Max Planck Law Fellow: Daniel Nagin (08-23-2024)
- Newsweek - There's a Better Way To Reduce Crime Than Mass Incarceration | Opinion (08-12-2024)
- The Sentencing Project - Incarceration and Crime: A Weak Relationship (06-13-2024)
- Daily Wire - Why The Criminal Justice System Gave Up On Punishing Criminals (02-06-2024)
- La Crosse Tribune - Bail reduced to $500K for triple homicide defendant following mistrial (08-14-2023)
- South Florida Sun-Sentinel - ‘No silver bullet’: Teen shootings keep happening in South Florida. Why? (07-01-2023)
- Daily Mail - Fireworks, hot dogs ... and a killing spree. The US endures five mass shootings each July 4 — experts say celebrating the nation's birth is becoming a carnival of death (06-29-2023)
- L.A. Progressive - Can Love-Based Education Reduce Violence ? (06-21-2023)
- Associated Press - At least 6 killed, dozens injured in weekend shootings across US (06-18-2023)
- EurekAlert - Tools to assess crime risk for young cohorts are likely to fail over time if they ignore social change (06-05-2023)
- BollyInside - Neglecting Social Change Can Render Crime Risk Assessment Tools Ineffective for Younger Demographics in the Long Run (06-05-2023)
- DW - Can stricter gun laws prevent shootings? (05-12-2023)
- The Athletic - Why the SEC’s latest strategy to curb storming the field is destined to fail (04-24-2023)
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law - Great Honor for Research Affiliate Daniel Nagin (04-20-2023)
- The Union (CA) - Ideas & Opinions - Terry McLaughlin: Crime and consequences (04-06-2023)
- Politifact - Ask PolitiFact: Are more people dying at the hands of law enforcement now than ever? (02-06-2023)
- Pittsburgh Tribune-Review - Could 'stop, question and frisk' drive down gun violence in Pittsburgh? (12-27-2022)
- The Crime Report - Public Safety Requires Justice Reform: Researchers (08-02-2022)
- Knowable Magazine - Rethinking prison as a deterrent to future crime (07-13-2022)
- Pittsburgh Tribune Review - Gun owners, onlookers split on what gun control proposals could accomplish (06-13-2022)
- Colorado Public Radio - Treatment wasn’t working. Would jail have saved a woman in Lakewood from fentanyl? (05-09-2022)
- Marginal Revolution - How to Get Tough on Crime (03-27-2022)
- Erie Times-News - Despite mayor's order, Erie police officer was never suspended for kicking protester (03-27-2022)
- Washington Post - Opinion: GOP attacks on Jackson miss the real liberal weakness on crime (03-25-2022)
- Law360 - Rise In Violent Crime Could Slow Resentencing Momentum (02-25-2022)
- EurekAlert - Behavioral scientist will present findings from 25-year study of outcomes of juvenile justice-involved youth (02-19-2022)
- NPR - More guns increase risk, even when no one is pointing a firearm at police (01-17-2022)
- WPLN - After the latest Nashville police shooting, one family wants changes to officer training (12-14-2021)
- Harvard Politics - No Eye for an Eye: Excessive Punishment in America (12-02-2021)
- Pittburgh Post-Gazette - Allegheny County grapples with another year of triple-digit homicides (11-29-2021)
- Philadelphia Tribune - Police shootings continue daily, despite a pandemic, protests and pushes for reform (08-06-2021)
- Washington Post - Police shootings continue daily, despite a (07-30-2021)
- Lab Manager - Social Change and Crime Trajectories (07-27-2021)
- The Age - Victoria’s wage theft laws a stride forward, but young workers still at risk (07-05-2021)
- Daily Journal - DA is cherry picking science (05-23-2021)
- Davis Vanguard - District Attorney George Gascón Creates Community Violence Reduction Division to Reduce Gang-Related Crimes (05-14-2021)
- Jakarta Post - Death penalty false cure for ailing Indonesian justice system (04-21-2021)
- TIME - Derek Chauvin's Trial Set to Begin Over the Death of George Floyd (03-25-2021)
- Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Pennsylvania’s backward sentencing policies (03-05-2021)
- Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Report raises questions with second-degree murder sentencing in Pennsylvania (02-12-2021)
- The Crime Report - Policing Experts Say Reform Possible Without 'Defunding' (11-16-2020)
- San Francisco Chronicle - Reopening Oscar Grant case is a chance to address systemic racism. I’m skeptical that will happen. (10-08-2020)
- The Appeal - Policing Studies Measure Benefits To Crime Reduction—But Not Social Costs (10-02-2020)
- Big Think - Three philosophies of punishment and whether or not they work (09-30-2020)
- Science - Pandemic inspires new push to shrink jails and prisons (09-17-2020)
- Washington Post - Perspective | The pandemic is tragic. It's also an incredible chance to study human behavior. (09-10-2020)
- Washington Post - Guest Post: Constructing civility and trust between police and citizens (09-07-2020)
- The Crime Report - Fatal Police Shootings Linked to Areas with High Gun Ownership (07-06-2020)
- San Francisco Chronicle - People from streets provide best path out of homelessness (06-25-2020)
- The Appeal - Philadelphia Police Make Hundreds of Looting Arrests, Leave Many More Violent Crime Cases Unsolved (06-25-2020)
- USA Today - Even if Congress bans chokeholds and no-knock warrants, local police departments might not comply (06-21-2020)
- USA Today - 'The major stumbling block': Powerful police unions stand in the way of structural reform, experts say (06-12-2020)
- Washington Post - Guest Post: Repairing the fractured foundations of the police (06-09-2020)
- Washington Post - Protests spread over police shootings. Police promised reforms. Every year, they still shoot and kill nearly 1,000 people. (06-08-2020)
- Russell Sage Foundation - RSF Scholar Daniel Nagin on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Prisons (06-05-2020)
- Indianapolis Star - Indianapolis police response has shifted from tear gas to hugs. What happened? (06-04-2020)
- Colorado Indy Springs - Colorado Springs sees ongoing protests after Minneapolis police kill Minnesota man (06-03-2020)
- The Crime Report - NYC Police Chief Fears Crime Jump When City Reopens (05-11-2020)
- Wall Street Journal - New York Police Department Expects Post-Pandemic Crime Surge (05-09-2020)
- AAPSS - Fellow Daniel Nagin Discusses Pandemic Challenges for Prisoners, Prosecutors, Police (04-21-2020)
- International Business Times - Certain Types Of Crime Spiking Across Major US Cities (04-20-2020)
- Labor & Employment Blog - With data showing significant "overall decline in crime," headline still blares "Some Crimes Are Spiking" (04-19-2020)
- Bloomberg - Some Crimes Are Spiking in Major U.S. Cities Amid Empty Streets (04-19-2020)
- San Francisco Chronicle - Some crimes are spiking in America's major cities (04-19-2020)
- Medical Xpress - Expert explains increased vulnerability of prisoners and police in a pandemic (04-01-2020)
- Futurity - COVID-19 precautions are impossible in prisons (04-01-2020)
- TIME - 'We Feel Like All of Us Are Gonna Get Corona.' Anticipating COVID-19 Outbreaks, Rikers Island Offers Warning For U.S. Jails, Prisons (03-24-2020)
- Public - Mason researchers lead comprehensive look at ways to combat gun violence (03-11-2020)
- The Crime Report - Stop-and-Frisk May Have Been OK in the 1990s: Experts (02-19-2020)
- Homeland Security News - Police Use of Lethal Force Tied to Statewide Prevalence of Gun Ownership (02-18-2020)
- Washington Post - Guest Post: Stop-and-frisk can be an effective crime-fighting tool, at the right time and place (02-18-2020)
- Eurasia Review - Statewide Prevalence Of Gun Ownership Tied To Police Use Of Lethal Force (02-15-2020)
- ABA Journal - New study finds black people are staying longer in state prisons, even as they face fewer arrests (01-10-2020)
- Baltimore Sun - By some standards, Baltimore suffered well more than a dozen 'mass shootings' in 2019 (01-04-2020)
- Brennan Center for Justice - Fraud Commission Should Ignore Fuzzy Math (12-06-2019)
- The Marshall Project - The Growing Racial Disparity in Prison Time (12-03-2019)
- E-News - Four years in a row, police nationwide fatally shoot nearly 1,000 people (11-23-2019)
- Denver Post - Guest Commentary: To save lives, Denver must commit to more red-light cameras (11-15-2019)
- PublicNow - Mason's Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy leads congressional briefing on mass shootings (09-26-2019)
- Yahoo - With viral moments and hard facts, Democrats seek to seize the moment on gun control (09-20-2019)
- Washington Post - Passing on Gun Reform, Trump Administration Wants to Expedite Executions of Mass Shooters (09-03-2019)
- NY Magazine - Passing on Gun Reform, Trump Administration Wants to Expedite Executions of Mass Shooters (09-02-2019)
- Good Men Project - Focus in Kindergarten May Predict Future Earnings (08-31-2019)
- Futurity - Focus in kindergarten may predict future earnings (08-09-2019)
- The Bump - Teach Your Kindergartener to Avoid This Habit to Help Them Get Rich Later in Life (08-07-2019)
- Tech Explorist - Kindergarten conduct linked to earning power as an adult (08-05-2019)
- Daily Mirror - Death Penalty the answer to Drug Crime? (07-22-2019)
- Education Dive - Study: Well-behaved kindergartners earn more as adults (07-18-2019)
- The Epoch Times - Romania - Demonstrat ştiinţific: răutatea nu este răsplătită nici economic (07-18-2019)
- Hechinger Report - Kindergarten behavior predicts adult earning power (07-16-2019)
- CNBC - A 30-year study says teaching your kids this trait can help them earn a higher salary in their 30s (07-11-2019)
- La Repubblica Online - La cattiveria non paga, chi era buono da bimbo guadagna di più (06-29-2019)
- Masala - Your Current Earnings Could Be Linked to How You Behaved in Kindergarten: Here's How! (06-28-2019)
- Chicago Tribune - Crime, punishment and deterrence for aldermen (06-26-2019)
- Ladders - This is the type of child who will be earning less at 35 (06-24-2019)
- Hindustan Times - Children’s behaviour in kindergarten linked to earnings in adulthood (06-23-2019)
- Psych Central - Kindergarten Behavior May Be Tied to Adult Earnings (06-23-2019)
- Fox Business - Higher salary may be predicted by this behavior in kindergarten, study finds (06-21-2019)
- Huffington Post - 5 Things To Know In Business Today: Kindergarten Misbehaviour Could Cost You Later (06-21-2019)
- MSN Lifestyle - This childhood personality trait influences how much money you'll make as an adult (06-21-2019)
- Inverse - Your Childhood Behavior Affects How Much Money You Make as an Adult (06-20-2019)
- National Post - Study links inattentiveness and bad behaviour in kindergarten to lower incomes in Canadian adults (06-20-2019)
- ANI - Children's behaviour in kindergarten linked to earnings in adulthood (06-20-2019)
- LIVE Science - Distracted Kindergartners May Earn Less As Adults (06-20-2019)
- Newsmax - Study: Kindergarten Behavior Linked to Life Earnings (06-20-2019)
- Health Day - Kindergarten Behavior Linked to Life Earnings in Study (06-19-2019)
- New York Post - Rowdy kindergartners will make less money as adults: study (06-19-2019)
- Health Medicine Network - Behavior in kindergarten associated with earnings in adulthood (06-19-2019)
- Press and Journal - Dr Hannah Graham: Pragmatic plan and cross-party consensus (05-02-2019)
- The Crime Report - Investigating the Puzzles Behind American Mass Shootings (04-15-2019)
- Washington Post - Guest Post: Reduce prison populations by reducing life sentences (03-21-2019)
- Medium - Does Childhood Behavior Predict Success? (02-19-2019)
- Inc. - Want to Raise Successful Kids? A Fascinating 30-Year Study Says Doing This at Age 6 Means They'll Make More Money as Adults (02-17-2019)
- Dr. Wilda - Carnegie Mellon University study: Low-income boys' inattention in kindergarten associated with lower earnings 30 years later (02-17-2019)
- Washington Post - Study shows that daydreaming in kindergarten can cost you (02-17-2019)
- Beritagar - Perilaku anak laki-laki usia dini pengaruhi tingkat penghasilannya kelak (02-16-2019)
- Daily Mail - Boys who behave badly in class are more likely to earn less as adults (02-14-2019)
- Kaiser Health News - KHN Morning Briefing (02-14-2019)
- The Independent - US police shoot almost 1,000 people dead every year, figures show (02-13-2019)
- Psych Central - Inattention in Low-Income Boys Tied to Lesser Earnings in Adulthood (02-13-2019)
- New York Times - Behavior at Age 6 May Predict Adult Income (02-13-2019)
- Washington Post - Four years in a row, police nationwide fatally shoot nearly 1,000 people (02-12-2019)
- Market Watch - Boys who can’t pay attention in kindergarten earn less as adults, study finds (02-12-2019)
- Futurity - Hyperactive kindergarten boys may earn less later (02-12-2019)
- MedIndia - More Disruptive The Kid In Childhood, Lesser He Will Earn In Future (02-12-2019)
- Parent Herald - Social Study reveals boys inattention in kindergarten associated with lower earnings 30 years later (02-12-2019)
- EurekAlert - Low-income boys' inattention in kindergarten associated with lower earnings 30 years later (02-11-2019)
- Reuters - Kindergarten teachers' assessments may be linked with pupils' earnings as adults (02-11-2019)
- The Sentinel - Aging into Crime: Pennsylvania deals with aging prison population (12-07-2018)
- El Universal - Agradecemos tu interés en nuestros contenidos, sin embargo; este material cuenta con derechos de propiedad intelectual, queda expresamente prohibido la publicación, retransmisión (11-13-2018)
- PolitiFact - Lt. Gov. hopeful Jeff Bartos says the death penalty is a deterrent. Researchers disagree. (10-11-2018)
- InsideSources - Should an Algorithm Determine Whether a Criminal Gets Bail? (08-14-2018)
- FactCheck.org - Q&A: The Death Penalty for Drug Trafficking? (04-05-2018)
- PR Newswire - Annual Reviews launches 48th review journal covering Criminology (01-24-2018)
- The Crime Report - ‘Proactive Policing’ Credited With Crime Reductions (11-09-2017)
- DavisVanguard.org - Commentary: Life Sentence for Burglary Conviction Is Not in the Interest of Justice (10-05-2017)
- Nature - A model of proactive policing (09-01-2017)
- Police Chief Magazine - 9 Ideas from Research on Improving Police Efforts to Control Crime (07-06-2017)
- Financial Post - Neil Mohindra: Cyber fraud is only getting worse in Canada — but the punishments are getting lighter (06-26-2017)
- KGO-AM - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (06-02-2017)
- Columbus News Team - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- NCN21 - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- Z943 - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- 6ABC - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- WFIN - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- WJBD - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- KRVN - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- ABC News - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- KWBE - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- KNEB - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- My Central Oregon - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- Fort Dodge - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- KYNT - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- WBAL - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- ABC 30 - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- ABC13 - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- 104.9 Max Country - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- KTIC - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- ABC 11 - Number of people serving life in US prisons is surging, new report says (05-04-2017)
- Government Technology - When Big Data Gets It Wrong (03-07-2017)
- Pittsburgh Post Gazette - People on the move: 2/27/2017 (02-27-2017)
- The Trace - Trump’s Promised Crackdown on Gun Crimes Is Coming Into Focus (01-26-2017)
- Washington Times - Trump’s call for ‘feds’ in Chicago confounds city leaders, police experts (01-26-2017)
- The Crime Report - Bring More to Federal Courts (01-26-2017)
- VICE - Trump's Promised Crackdown on Gun Crimes Is Coming into Focus - VICE (01-26-2017)
Publications
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Crime and Sanctions
- Nagin, D.S., and Paternoster, R. 1993. “Enduring Individual Differences and Rational Choice Theories of Crime.” Law and Society Review 27: 467-498.
- Manski, C.F., and Nagin, D.S. 1998. “Bounding Disagreements About Treatment Effects: A Case Study of Sentencing and Recidivism.” Sociological Methodology 28: 99-138.
- Nagin, D.S., Rebitzer, J., Sanders, S., and Taylor, L. 2002. “Monitoring, Motivation and Management: The Determinants of Opportunistic Behavior in a Field Experiment.” American Economic Review 92: 850:872.
- Nagin, D.S. Cullen, F.T., Jonson, C.L. 2009. “Imprisonment and Reoffending.” In M. Tonry, ed., Crime and Justice: An Annual Review of Research (vol. 38). Chicago: University of Chicago Press
- Durlauf, S. N. and D. S. Nagin. 2011. “Imprisonment and Crime: Can Both be Reduced?” Criminology and Public Police 10: 9-54.
- National Research Council. 2012. Deterrence and the Death Penalty. Daniel S. Nagin and John V. Pepper (eds.). National Academy Press: Washington, DC.
- Nagin, D.S. 2013. “Deterrence in the 21 st Century: A Review of the Evidence.” In M. Tonry, ed., Crime and Justice: An Annual Review of Research. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
- Nagin, Daniel S.. 2013. “Deterrence: A Review of the Evidence by a Criminologist for Economists.” Annual Review of Economics5:83:106 .
Developmental Origins of Crime and Violence
- Nagin, D.S., and Paternoster, R. 1991. “On the Relationship of Past to Future Participation in Crime.” Criminology, 29: 163-189.
- Nagin, D.S., Farrington, D., and Moffitt, T. 1995. “Life-Course Trajectories of Different Types of Offenders.” Criminology, 33: 111-140.
- Laub, J., Nagin, D.S., and Sampson, R. 1998. “Trajectories of Change in Criminal Offending: Good Marriages and the Desistance Process.” American Sociological Review 63: 225-239.
- Nagin, D.S., and Tremblay, R.E. 1999. “Trajectories of Boys’ Physical Aggression, Opposition, and Hyperactivity on the Path to Physically Violent and Nonviolent Juvenile Delinquency.” Child Development 70: 1181:1196.
- Nagin, D.S. and Tremblay, R.E. 2001. “Parental and Early Childhood Predictors of Persistent Physical Aggression in Boys from Kindergarten to High School.” Archives of General Psychiatry, 58(4): 389-394.
- Broidy, L.M., Nagin, D.S., Tremblay, R.E., Bates, J.E., Brame, B., Dodge, K., Fergusson, D., Horwood, J., Loeber, R. Laird, R., Lynam, D., Moffitt, T., Pettit, G.S., and Vitaro, F. 2003. “Developmental Trajectories of Childhood Disruptive Behaviours and Adolescent Delinquency: A Six Site, Cross-national Study.” Developmental Psychology, 39: 222-245.
Group-Based Trajectory Modeling
- Nagin, D.S., and Land, K. 1993. “Age, Criminal Careers, and Population Heterogeneity: Specification and Estimation of a Nonparametric Mixed Poisson Model.” Criminology 31: 327-362.
- Nagin, D.S. 1999. “Analyzing Developmental Trajectories: A Semi-parametric, Group-based Approach.” Psychological Methods 4: 139-177.
- Nagin, D. S. 2005. Group-based Modeling of Development. Cambridge, MA.: Harvard University Press.
- Nagin, D.S. and C.L. Odgers. 2010. “Group-based trajectory modeling in clinical research.” Annual Review of Clinical Psychology6:109-138.
Additional Information
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CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, B.S. (Administrative and Managerial Sciences)
CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, M.S. (Industrial Administration), 1971
CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Ph.D. (Urban and Public Affairs), 1976